This is a preliminary attempt for a simple, non-rigorous verification of the previous months forecast. All we are doing for the moment is comparing the forecast rainfall maps with "observation" maps extracted from the Agricultural Research Council's Umlindi news letter and the IRI. Links to provincial chart data from the Department of Water Affairs are also provided.

The Umlindi map is provided in the UMLINDI Newsletter which is produced by the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) - Institute for Soil, Climate and Water. Rainfall data in producing the map comes from the automatic weather station network of both the ARC and South African Weather Service (SAWS) as well as satellite rainfall estimates from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/rfe.shtml.

Please use these maps with the caveats above in mind. As usual, we would appreciate feedback: lennard@csag.uct.ac.za

If last season's forecast shows, please clear your browser's cache and hit your browser's "Reload" button.

Forecast maps produced using the persisted SST method

Observation maps
Umlindi news letter - units are as a percentage departure from the long-term monthly mean.	IRI - units are an anomaly (departure) in mm from a long-term monthly mean.
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Please click here for charts showing provincial information of observed and normal rainfall from the Department of Water Affairs.

Forecast maps produced using the forecast SST method